Warning and forecasting of Cyclones

Warning and forecasting of Cyclones

A tropical cyclone in combination with local tides and local coastal configuration gives rise to a storm surge that makes coastal areas vulnerable to flooding, erosion of beaches, loss of soil fertility due to saline intrusion along with a heavy risk of damage to structures.

Cyclones with strong winds cause damage to structures, loss of power and communication, injuries and loss of life along with destruction of crops, vegetation and live stock. In such instances, there is also a risk of contamination of water supply system and land subsidence coupled with the risk of flooding of inland areas. A block diagram of the early warning system being used by the IMD is shown below.

INSERT IMAGE!

LAFS - Limited area Analysis and Forecasting System

NWP - Numerical Weather Prediction

NCMRWF - National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

RTH - Regional Telecom Hub

The Observation system consists of:

-Conventional Observation Network

-Automatic Weather Station

-Buoy/Ship observations

-Cyclone Detection Radar

-Doppler Weather Radar

-Satellites

Satellite Observations

-Images in all three channels

-Outgoing longwave radiation

-Atmospheric motion vectors

-Quantitative precipitation estimates

-Sea Surface Temperatures

-Products derived fro CCD data

Tropical Cyclonic Track Forecasting

-Method based on climatology (Analog)

-Methods based on persistence and climatology

-Synoptic methods - Empirical techniques

-Satellite techniques

-Statistical techniques (Chaos theory & generic algorithm developed by SAC Ahmedabad)

-Analog techniques

-NWP models

-Operational (consensus) forecast

• Scientific and technological advances are translated into effectiveness of tropical cyclone warnings
• The forecasters blend scientifically based conceptual models, meteorological datasets, technology and expertise towards the goal of providing clear, concise, useful and relevant warning information to the public in a timely and effective manner.
• The basic values and principles are described in the operational guidelines set by the IMD
• Existing Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models for cyclone forecasting are:
• Global model of NCMRWF (T254)
• Regional model (LAM & QLM)
• Meso-scale model (MM5 & WRF)
• International models used in IMD:
• ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting
• UKMO - United Kingdom Met Office
• JMA - Japan Meteorological Agency
• COLA anomaly coupled model

LAM - Limited Area Model

QLM - Quasi Lagrangian Model

WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting

MM5 - Meso-scale Model

A good warning model should be:

1. Simple
2. Easy to understand
3. Able to trigger organised responses from the government
4. Able to create orderly collective responses of the public to minimize loss of life and damage to property

Warning and forecasting of Earthquakes

Warning and forecasting of Earthquakes

The Ministry of Earth System Science - National Centre for Seismology (MoES-NCS) maintains a national seismological network consisting of 42 digital seismographs stations to measure earthquake magnitude and monitor earthquake activity in and around the Indian region. Additionally 78 new digital seismographs have been installed recently. The ground motion data recorded by the instrument system are used for the estimation of magnitude and other earthquake parameters. However, there is no scientific technique available anywhere in the world to forecast or predict the occurrence of earthquake with reasonable degree of accuracy  with regard to space, time and magnitude.

Loss of life and damage to property due to earthquakes could be reduced through proper planning and implementation of pre- and post- disaster preparedness and management strategies by the government. Guidelines have been published by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) and Building Materials and Technology Promotion Council (BMTPC) for the design of earthquake resistant structures to minimise the loss of life and damage to property caused by earthquakes. Government agencies and academic institutions are currently engaged in the following activities for warning and forecasting earthquakes.

• Up-gradation and digitization of topographic maps with contour interval of 0.5m by Survey of India (SOI) and National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC)
• Sharing of seismic data being collected by IMD with other departments
• Deployment and augmentation of observing systems such as GPS, bore hole sensors, multi-parametric observing systems, etc at identified locations for better understanding of physical processes associated with earthquakes, active fault mapping in addition to the existing conventional weak and strong motion observing systems.
• Creation of a modern test and maintenance facility for testing and upkeep or rectification of existing sophisticated equipment and seismological instruments such as broadband sensors, SMAs, digitizers and communication systems.
• Strengthening or augmentation of the existing data centre facility of IMD.
• Raster scanning and vector digitization of seismic analog charts at seismological observatory. Raster scanning of remaining significant historical seismograms, their vector digitization and archival in electronic media.
• Analysis of seismological and collateral geophysical data in near real-time
• R & D programs in collaboration with other leading countries in development of earthquake prediction and forecasting methods.
• Establishment of additional heavy mass vibration laboratories
• Development of GIS based hazard and vulnerability database or digitized maps
• Innovative earthquake resistant construction technologies for new and retrofitting of existing buildings
• Monitoring earthquakes and conducting research for earthquake instrumentation
• Real-time monitoring for occurrence of earthquakes
• Setting-up earthquake scenarios for major urban high hazard areas
• Mapping of all faults

Earthquake instrumentation and monitoring:

India has more than two hundred earthquake monitoring stations which are mainly located in high hazard areas along the Himalayas and in the north-east. In order to identify the major earthquake sources and their activity rates, dense networks of earthquake monitoring stations are required. Each such network consists of at least 90 strong motion instruments and 10 broad band instruments. These instruments are used to identify the seismic source, activity rate, strain build-up, determination of ground motion equations and for updating earthquake hazard map of the region.

Real-time earthquake occurrence monitoring:

A network of earthquake monitoring stations is used to assess the size, location, depth and wave propagation parameters of earthquake events in realtime.

Warning and forecasting of Tsunami

Warning and forecasting of Tsunami

The Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has the mandate for detecting tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring in the Indian Ocean as well as in the global oceans within ten minutes of occurrence of the earthquake and disseminating the tsunami related advisories to the concerned authorities through email, fax, GTS and website. The India Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) established at INCOIS has the latest scientific  techniques to provide early warnings  for an impending tsunami to all countries in the Indian ocean region. Indian Tsunami Early Warning System comprises of a real-time seismic monitoring network of broadband seismic stations. INCOIS also has a real-time sea-level network with seven tsunami buoys in the open ocean and 35 tide gauges at different locations on the coast to monitor the tsunami waves. In addition, INCOIS also takes the help of numerical model to assess the tsunami potential at different locations on the coast. ITEWC is also receiving data in real time from 350 seismic stations, 50 tsunami buoys and 300 tidal gauges established in the Indian as well as the other oceans by other countries and international agencies. The operational forecasting of tropical cyclones is the mandate of the IMD. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO has designated ITEWC as the Tsunami Service Provider (TSP) for the entire Indian Ocean Region. Since 2012, ITEWC is providing tsunami advisories and related services to about 25 countries.
A High Performance Computer (HPC) system named 'Mihir' was inaugurated at the NCMRWF. This facility will greatly improve India's capacity in weather forecasting. It is India's largest HPC facility in terms of peak capacity and performance. Mihir's resources can be used by weather and climate community to provide tsunami forecasts with greater lead time.

Warning and early forecasting of droughts

Drought is a normal recurrent feature of climate and occurs in all climatic regions and is usually characterized in terms of its spatial extension, intensity and duration. Conditions of drought appear when the rainfall is deficient in relation to the statistical multi-year average for a region, over an extended period of a season or year or even more. It is slow on-set and hence difficult to determine the beginning and end. It requires continuous monitoring of climate and water supply indicators. Impacts are difficult to quantify, are cumulative and effects magnify when events continue from one season to another. Impacts of droughts may be direct or indirect.
Direct impacts include:
-Reduced agricultural production
-Increased fire hazard
-Depleted water levels
-Damage to wildlife and fish habitats
-Higher livestock & wildlife mortality
Indirect impacts include:
-Social impacts
-Economic impacts and
-Environmental impacts

Drought monitoring can be carried out using:

• Monitoring and early warning system
• Key drought indicators
• Developing a composite index and
• Drought monitoring checklist

Early warning system:

• Receive forecasts, early warning and advisories from scientific institutions
• Monitor key indices amd
• Develop composite index of various drought indicators

1. IMD is the designated agency for providing drought early warning and forecasting. IMD monitors agricultural drought every two weeks on a real-time basis during main crop seasons (Kharif and Rabi) of India. An Aridity Anomaly Index based on the lines of Thronthwaite's concept is used to monitor the incidence, spread, intensification and recession of drought. The Drought Research Unit at IMD Pune, provides crop yield forecasts using pre-harvest crop yield forecasting models and issues forecasts for Kharif and Rabi crops based on agro-meteorological models.
2. The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in collaboration with IMD, Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR), State Agricultural Universities (SAU) provides agro-climatic zones to the farming community based on location specific medium range weather forecasts. The Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad and the All India Coordinated Research Projects on Agrimeteorology and Dryland Agriculture (AICRPAM & AICRPDA) each have 25 centers across SAUs across the country and take part in drought studies pertaining to assessment, mitigation, risk transfer and development of Decision Support Software (DSS) for drought prone states. 
3. The ministry of earth sciences in collaboration with ICAR has set-up 89 centers for short and medium range monitoring and forecasting of weather.
4. The National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS) developed by department of space for the department of agriculture primarily monitors the vegetation through National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency's (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. Drought assessment is based on a comparative evaluation of satellite observed green vegetation cover of a district in any time period with that of any similar period in previous years. This comparative evaluation helps in fixing current season in the scale of historical agricultural situations.

Forecasting and warning of landslides

Landslide monitoring and early warning systems for landslide occurrence and prediction

An integrated wireless sensor network system for real-time monitoring and early warning of landslides has been carried-out in India. It consists of Intelligent Wireless Probes (IWP) to capture relevant landslide triggering parameters. The network of IWPs is used to derive the local or regional contribution of geological, hydrological and meteorological factors towards the initiation of a potentially imminent landslide. This heterogeneous sensor system provides the capability for gathering real-time context aware data to understand the dynamic variability in landslide risk. The system enhances the reliability of landslide warning, reduced false alarm rate and provides the capability to issue warnings at local and regional levels. An early warning system is an effective measure to reduce the damage caused by landslides by facilitating timely evacuation of residents from a land-slide prone area. Early detection of landslide triggering across a broad range of natural terrain types can be accomplished by monitoring rainfall and the physical property changes in soils in real-time or near real-time. This can be conducted by installing real-time monitoring system to observe physical property changes in soils in a valley during rainfall events. Laboratory experiments have shown that volumetric content of water is a prime parameter to evaluate the stability of a slope. Hence, landslide monitoring can be based on volumetric water content and its changes over time over shallow soil depths. It has been shown that a high amount of rainfall combined with a high gradient of volumetric water content induces a slope failure. This suggests a threshold value of volumetric water that separates conditions for slope stability and slope failure. Hence this threshold value can be used as an early warning system for landslides.

Warning & forecasting of floods

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is working on systems to forecast natural disasters that could be used as input by states / disaster management agencies. ISRO is carrying out studies to facilitate best use of satellite derived information to develop methodologies for forecasting natural disasters. Some of the methodologies used are listed below:

1. ISRO has developed methodologies for forecasting cyclone formation, its track and intensity using satellite based observation and this technique has been transferred to IMD who is mandated for cyclone forecast
2. Flood Early Warning Systems: The North Eastern Space Applications Center (NESAC) of ISRO has developed the Flood Early Warning System (FLEWS) as a research and development project in Assam state in association with Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA). This model in being used in all 25 flood prone districts of Assam. Another model for forecasting floods in Godavari flood plains in Andhra Pradesh is developed by National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) of ISRO. The methodology is being used by Central Water Commission (CWC). ISRO is developing similar systems for Krishna, Brahmani-Baitarani, Ghagra, Gandak and Kosi rivers.
3. Space Applications Center (SAC) of ISRO has developed a model for heavy rainfall/cloud burst alerts, which is experimentally carried for Indian region. The information is made available on ISROs Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre (MOSDAC)
4. Rainfall triggered landslide alerts for the Uttarakhand region has been developed as an experimental early warning system for use along the pilgrimage route corridors leading to Gangotri, Badrinath and Kedarnath as well as along the Pithorgarh-Malpa route in Uttarakhand. The forewarning is generated based on the statistical relation between the terrain (geological, morphological) and temporal (primarily long term rainfall events) factors 
5. ISRO has developed experimental methodologies for early warning extreme weather events such as heat wave using Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP). The information derived is being made available on the MOSDAC website.

ISRO has realised two satellite missions:

1. Meghatropiques launched in October 2011 and
2. Saral launched in Febuary 2013 in collaboration with French National Space Agency (CNES)

Currently ISRO is working with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), for a joint realisation of a satellite mission called NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) to be launched in 2020-21. Fund allocation for Meghatropiques is 81.6 crore, SARAL is 73.75 crore and for NISAR is 513 crore.

Disaster Management & Mitigation - UNIT-V

Risk and vulnerability to disaster
Disaster mitigation and management options - warning and forecasting

Crowdsourcing and ICT in disaster management

Crowdsourcing and ICT in disaster management

Crowdsourcing: Crowd-sourcing is a method of information collection that utilizes data collected from volunteers. This has been extensively used in disaster management by providing critical information to fill the gaps and  thereby complements the disaster response efforts. It is being increasingly used to produce information before a disaster takes place and thus aiding in disaster preparedness.

ICT: Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) are used in anticipating, communicating and organizing actions before, during and after disaster events.

'Sahana' and 'Ushahidi' are two software programs that focus on crisis management and are integrated with GIS.

The lifecycle of a crowdsourced emergency report consists of:
-the local observer
-a web-user with some knowledge of linked open-data and
-the information manager working for a relief organisation


Crowdsourcing linked open data is the next step towards a full exploitation of crowdsourced information in disaster management.

Instruments used to predict occurrence of natural disasters

Instruments used to predict occurrence of natural disasters

Several systems are used to monitor and predict natural hazards. The following is the list of instruments used to predict the occurrence of various natural disasters:

1. Continuous television and radio broadcasts of severe weather by real-time or near real-time data from meteorological stations and satellite images for prediction of cyclones or floods
2. Seismic instruments are used to measure low-frequency ground motion caused by earthquakes. They detect the seismic waves created by subsurface ruptures and convert ground motions into electronic signals which are suitable for transmission. Instruments that are used to predict earthquakes include the following:
   1. Creepmeters, to warn of movement of the earth's soil;
   2. Global positioning systems, to warn of movement of the earth's crust;
   3. Laser light, to warn of disrupted light beam transmission from one side of a fault line to another;
   4. Magnetometer, to warn of magnetic field changes;
   5. Strainmeters, through the coordinated use of the seismometer and the seismograph, to warn of underground vibrations or shock waves.
3. A drought can be predicted by the consistent lack of rainfall
4. A Tsunami can be predictted using a 'tsunameter'
   

Landslides and use of remote sensing to predict their occurrence

Predicting occurrence of landslides using remote sensing techniques:

Landslides are one of the most damaging natural hazards in mountainous terrain.
Rocks are disintegrated and decomposed by the process of weathering. Weathered material soaked with rain water slides down due to gravity. This sudden downward slip movement of rock material is called landslide.

Landslides can occur due to:
-condition of soil
-moisture and
-angle of slope

Occurrence of landslides is particularly common in geodynamic sensitive belts.

The main factors triggering landslides are:
-heavy and prolonged rainfall
-cutting and deep excavation on slope for construction of buildings, roads, canals or mining activity without proper disposal of debries and
-earthquake shocks and tremors

Widespread deforestation for development activities and increasing population pressure has forced people to conduct agriculture on steeper slopes thereby aggravating occurrence of landslides in terrain of varying relief.

Prediction of the occurrence of a landslide in an area is essential to minimize the intensity of a landslide hazard.

Remote sensing images provide useful land use information that can be used in conjunction with GIS software along with other spatial factors to predict the occurrence of a landslide.

Remote sensing is mainly used to map the distribution of existing landslide location and factors that affect the occurrence of a landslide.

Satellite images can be used to recognise and interpret detailed geomorphic characteristics of large and small landslides and determine the likelihood of a landslide.

Current high resolution stereo SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) and optical images produce multiscale landslide inventory maps to improve mitigation.

Remote sensing techniques have been widely used to study characteristics of land surface due to advantage of repetitive data acquisition of a large area in a short time.

Spatial analysis using data derived from remote sensing techniques and other thematic map data helps in prediction and estimation of landslide hazard areas.

Satellite data can be used to derive land surface temperature and land use information.

Elevation and terrain slope can be determined from Digital Elevation Model (DEM) generated from aerial photographs using stereo correlation techniques.

Underground water level information can be estimated from the combination of the above data. From these data, simple algorithms are used to classify area into different risk zones.

All the risk maps are combined using spatial analysis and a final risk map is produced taking into account all the factors.

Thus, remote sensing techniques when integrated with GIS are an extremely useful tool to study potential landslide areas.

APPLICATIONS OF REMOTE SENSING & GIS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT - 1

APPLICATIONS OF REMOTE SENSING & GIS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT

1. Space technologies and disaster mitigation communities work together to develop effective and accurate methods for prevention, preparedness and relief measures.
2. Disaster prevention is a long-term phenomena that can be best studied with the help of satellite monitoring of various relevant factors such as change in land use.
3. Disaster preparedness focusses on warnings and forecasts of impending disasters and entails processes that are dynamic and result in "rapid onset" disasters.
4. Disaster relief occurs after (and sometimes during) the emergency.
5. Satellite monitoring involves assessment of damage incurred during the disaster.
6. Satellite technology helps in identifying escape routes and location for storage of temporary housing.
7. Remote sensing and GIS are among the many tools available to disaster management professionals.
8. None of the existing satellites and their sensors have been designed solely for observing natural hazards. The spectral bands in VIS (VISible), NIR (Near Infra Red ), IR (Infra Red), SWIR (Short Wave Infra Red), TIR (Thermal Infra Red) and SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) provide adequate spectral coverage. This data can be enhanced using a computer and used for effectively managing disasters.
9. Repetitive or multi-temporal coverage is justified since the data can be used to study dynamic phenomenon whose changes can be identified over time. For example:
1. Natural hazard events
2. Changing land use patterns
3. Hydrologic and geologic characteristics of a region
10.  Experts in disaster management:
1. Monitor the situation
2. Accurately simulate complex natural phenomena and devise better prediction models
3. Suggest appropriate contingency plans and
4. Prepare spatial databases
11. The following are the characteristics of remotely sensed images:
1. Spatial continuity
2. Uniform accuracy and precision
3. Multi-temporal coverage
4. Complete coverage regardless of site location
12. Use of remotely sensed data:
1. Quickly assess severity and impact of damage due to flooding, earthquakes, oil spills and other disasters
2. Planning efficient escape routes
3. Charting quickest routes for ambulances to reach victims
4. Locating places for shelter for victims or refugees
5. Calculating population density in disaster prone areas
6. Rapidly identifying hardest-hit disaster areas in order to provide early warning of potential disasters.
7. Pre-disaster assessments to facilitate planning for timely evacuation and recovery operations during a crisis
8. Monitoring reconstruction or rehabilitation after a major disaster
9.  Developing,  maintaining or updating accurate base maps.

Earthquakes: Remote sensing techniques can add to information available through seismic techniques.

1. Faults associated with earthquakes can be identified on good resolution satellite imagery.
2. Land-use and geological maps give vital pointers towards  potential earthquake zones.
3. Satellite sensors that are active in VIS (VISible) and NIR (Near Infra Red) spectral bands are useful for the above mentioned purpose.
4. IRS, NOAA, SPOT, LANDSAT and IKONOS collect required data. However, LANDSAT imageries are popular as they have a huge historical archive data and are cost effective.
5. Earthquakes can trigger landslides of unconsolidated sediments at high elevations.

According to the seismic classification of India, Zone V that covers the following locations is most prone to earthquakes:

1. North-East India
2. Jammu & Kashmir
3. Himachal Pradesh
4. Uttarakhand (Due to movement of Indian and Asian plate) and
5. Gujarat 

Tsunami

1. Tsunamis  are water waves or seismic sea waves caused by large-scale sudden movement of sea floor. This could be triggered by earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides or man-made explosions.
2. Tsunamis can cause serious damage to thousands of kilometers from causative faults.
3. They are less than 1m surface height in mid ocean where they originate. They travel at speeds touching 900 kmph.
4. As they approach land, the speed decreases and energy is transformed into wave height of almost 25 - 30m
5. Time between successive waves is almost 20 to 40 minutes.
6. Near the coastline, sea receedes lower than the lowest tide and then rises as a giant wave.
7. Satellite or aerial photography when combined with a good GIS database of an area, provides critical information to emergency managers.

Floods : Floods are a result of excess run-off, which could increase or decrease depending upon various factors such as:

1. Intensity of rainfall
2. Snow melt
3. Soil type
4. Soil moisture condition
5. Land use / Land cover

Every monsoon, some part of India is under floods. In normal rainfall, Uttarakhand, Uttaranchal, Maharashtra & Bengal are flooded.

Flood plains and flood prone areas can be identified on remotely sensed imagery.

Remotely sensed imagery is used for:

1. Flood mapping using images of peak flood and post flood
2. Flood forecasting based on cloud patterns

For flood mapping purposes, a pre-flood scene and a peak flood image should be compared to delineate the inundated area and based on the land use, classification of the damages in terms of property and crops is established.

The major hurdle in recording floods is that optical satellites cannot penetrate clouds that are present in atmosphere during rainfall.

Optical satellites perform passive remote sensing while Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) uses remote sensisng which is active remote sensing.

Fire:
Fire detection by satellites  provides a highly efficient means of detecting and eradicating forest fires without large number of ground based workers.
Thermal Infrared imagery shows 'HOTSPOTS' that may be distinguished from clouds of similar 'Albedo'.

List of Indian Remote Sensing Satellites

LIST OF INDIAN REMOTE SENSING SATELLITES

List of Indian Remote Sensing Satellites in reverse chronological order 

(latest first)

1. Saral (Latest)
2. RISAT-1
3. Megha-Tropiques
4. RESOURCESAT-2
5. Cartosat-2B
6. Oceansat-2
7. RISAT-2
8. IMS-1
9. CARTOSAT-2A
10. CARTOSAT-2
11. CARTOSAT-1
12. IRS P6/RESOURCESAT-1
13. Technology Experiment Satellite (TES)
14. IRS-P4/OCEANSAT
15. IRS-1D
16. IRS-P3
17. IRS-1C
18. IRS-P2
19. IRS-1B
20. SROSS-2
21. IRS-1A
22. RS-D2
23. Bhaskara-II
24. RS-D1
25. Bhaskara-1 (Oldest)

Disaster Management Information System (DMIS)

The Disaster Management Information System (DMIS) is a web-based working tool from which users will be able to access:

• real time information on disaster trends
• online internal and external resources
• tools and databases
  

The DMIS project started in February 2001 as a follow up to Strategy 2010 and in response to the need for informed decisions, speed and efficient operational readiness.

The Disaster Management Information System is a civil society initiative supported by socially conscious institutions and individuals, companies and organisations.

Natural disasters impart lessons at a very high cost of life and property. Disasters and the subsequent chaos indicate the importance of disaster planning to manage relief and rehabilitation during disasters.

In the event of a disaster, the relief work suffers immensely due to lack of information and proper planning.

A database on the distribution of available resources and expertise with individuals, institutions and corporations will be extremely useful to combat disasters. This indicates the necessity of building a system for disaster mitigation and for documenting experiences of individuals and organisations, which might act as a knowledge resource and help in better coordination in case of future disasters.

Disaster Management Information Systems involve developing a database-driven information system for Disaster Management Authorities (DMA) in various states, NGOs and other organisations. NGOs, relief workers, DMAs and individuals share their experiences and volunteer services and resources to the online database maintained on the website.

The database currently contains more than a thousand volunteers who have offered to volunteer their services and resources in time of emergency. About 700 organisations and institutions are also listed on the site, besides other resources and web links.

Disaster Management Information System is a global initiative for preparing civil society to meet emergencies.

Traffic accidents becoming a hazard - An example (Case study)

Definition of traffic accident
A traffic accident, motor vehicle collision, motor vehicle accident, car accident, automobile accident, road traffic collision, road traffic accident, occurs when a vehicle collides with another vehicle,
pedestrian, animal, road debris, or other stationary obstruction, such as a tree or utility pole. Traffic collisions may result in injury, death, vehicle damage, and property damage.

Causes
A number of factors contribute to a traffic accident. For example:

1. vehicle design, 
2. speed of operation, 
3. road design, 
4. road environment,
5. driver skill and/or impairment, and 
6. driver behaviour.

Types of traffic accidents
Traffic collisions can be classified by type of collision. For example,

1. head-on, 
2. road departure, 
3. rear-end, 
4. side collisions, and
5. rollovers.

The main elements of good driving are:

1. controlling a car including a good awareness of the car's size and capabilities
2. reading and reacting to road conditions, weather, road signs and the environment and
3. alertness, reading and anticipating the behavior of other drivers.

In order to minimise accidents, several measures have been taken-up including:

1. law enforcement policies (drink-driving laws, setting of speed limits, and speed enforcement systems such as speed cameras & use of seat belts)

Effects
Impacts due to traffic accidents:

1. Loss of life or injury or life-long disability
2. Loss of property
3. Psychological stress (PTSD)
4. Increased insurance costs
5. Associated social discrimination

Definition of hazard

Case study

NATURAL DISASTERS

EARTHQUAKE
An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves.  At the Earth's surface earthquakes manifest themselves by shaking and sometimes displacement of the ground. Earthquakes are mainly caused by rupture of geological faults, but also by other events such as volcanic activity, landslides, mine blasts and nuclear tests. An earthquake's point of initial rupture is called its focus or hypocenter. The epicenter is the point at ground level directly above the hypocenter.

Seismic Zonation map of a country is a guide to the seismic status of a region and its susceptibility to earthquakes. India has been divided into five zones with respect to severity of earthquakes. Of these, zone v is seismically the most active where earthquakes of magnitude 8 or more could occur. 

FLOOD
A flood is an overflow of water that submerges land that is usually dry. Flooding may result from the volume of water within a body of water, such as a river or a lake which overflows or breaks levees, with the result that some of the water escapes its usual boundaries or may be due to accumulation of rainwater on saturated ground in an areal flood. Floods can also occur in rivers, when flow exceeds the capacity of the river channel, particularly at the bends or meanders. Floods often cause damage to homes and businesses if they are placed in natural flood plains of rivers. Flood damage can be virtually eliminated by moving away from rivers and other bodies of water.

DROUGHT
A drought is an extended period of months or years when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply. This occurs when a region receives consistently below average precipitation. It can have a substantial impact on the ecosystem and agriculture of the affected region. Although droughts can persist for several years, even a short intense drought can cause significant damage and harm to the local economy. Drought can also reduce water quality due to less quantity of water to dilute pollutants and increase contamination in the remaining water.

LANDSLIDE
A landslide or landslip is a geological phenomena which includes a wide range of ground movement, such as rock falls, deep failure of slopes and shallow debris flows which can occur in offshore, coastal and onshore environments. Although the action of gravity is the primary driving force for a landslide to occur, there are other contributing factors affecting the original slope stability.
Typically, pre-conditional factors build up specific sub-surface conditions that make the area/slope prone to failure, whereas the actual landslide often requires a trigger before being released.

CYCLONES
In meteorology, a cyclone is an area of closed, circular fluid motion rotating in the same direction as the Earth. This is usually characterised by inward spiraling winds that rotate counterclockwise in the Northern hemisphere  and clockwise in the Southern hemisphere of the Earth. Most large-scale cyclonic circulations are centered on areas of low atmospheric pressure.

TSUNAMIS
A tsunami is a series of water waves caused by the displacement of a large volume of a body of water, typically an ocean or a large lake. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other underwater explosions, landslides, glacier calvings, meteorite impacts and other disturbances above or below the water all have the potential to generate a tsunami. Tsunami waves do not resemble normal sea waves because their wavelength is much longer. Instead of appearing as a breaking wave, a tsunami may appear instead as a rapidly rising tide, and for this reason they are often referred to as tidal waves. Tsunamis generally consist of a series of waves with periods ranging from minutes to hours arriving in a so-called “wave train”.

INDEX

Notes for Disaster Mitigation and Management (latest syllabus AY-2021-2022)

Disaster Management & Mitigation - UNIT-I

Disaster Management & Mitigation - UNIT-II

Disaster Management & Mitigation - UNIT-III

Disaster Management & Mitigation - UNIT-IV

Disaster Management & Mitigation - UNIT-V

IMPORTANT ABBREVIATIONS

Types of hydrometeorological disasters and geographical based disasters

Ways in which remote sensing and GIS help in disaster mitigation and management

Bhopal gas tragedy as a chemical industrial disaster

Differences between human induced and human made disasters

Natural Disasters

Crowdsourcing and ICT in disaster management

Instruments used to predict occurrence of natural disasters

Landslides and use of remote sensing to predict their occurrence

APPLICATIONS OF REMOTE SENSING & GIS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT - 1

List of Indian Remote Sensing Satellites

Disaster Management Information System (DMIS)

Traffic accidents becoming a hazard - An example (Case study)

Effects of a major power breakdown

Risk and Vulnerability in the context of disaster management

Vulnerability of India to disasters

Classification of disasters

Desertification

Drought

Avalanche

Landslides

DRR - Disaster Risk Reduction

Definition of Disaster

International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction - IDNDR

Floods in India

What is disaster management & Disaster Management Cycle

Tsunami

Disaster Management Continuum

National Disaster Management Structure

Avalanche

Cyclones

Natural Disasters - Hydrometeorological based disasters

Introduction to Disaster Management

Geospatial technologies currently used for Disaster Mitigation and Management

The following questions for the course on Disaster management and mitigation have actually appeared on previous final examination question papers!

IMPORTANT QUESTIONS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT & MANAGEMENT

Important material for disaster management (Overall in brief - few topics in the syllabus might not be covered)

Geo-spatial technologies in disaster management

Major power breakdowns as a disaster

Warning and forecasting methods in disaster management

Vulnerability and Risk in disaster management

GIS in disaster management

What is GIS

What is Remote Sensing

Notes, and website links - REFERENCES

Man-made and Human-Induced disasters in detail

Very useful website (blog)

Disaster Mitigation

Names given to cyclones in different parts of the world

Landslide Vs Avalanche - The difference

Methods to measure an earthquake

Characteristics of natural disasters

Man-made disasters and Human-induced disasters

Natural Disasters - Tsunami: Causes, Effects and response

Warning and forecasting of Earthquakes

Warning and forecasting of Tsunami

Warning and early forecasting of droughts

Forecasting and warning of landslides

Warning & forecasting of floods

Ways in which remote sensing and GIS help in disaster mitigation and management

Geographic Information System (GIS) is a computer based application of technology involving spatial and attributes information to act as a decision support tool. It keeps information in different layers and generates various combinations pertaining to the requirement of the decision making. GIS has emerged as an effective tool in management of disasters since, geo-spatial data and socio-economic information need to be amalgamated for the better decision making in handling a disaster or to plan for tackling a disaster in a better way. GIS could be utilized by the different line departments and agencies who are stakeholders in the disaster management process. Some basic hardware like computer system, printer, network systems, along with GIS software are required to set up the GIS in any organisation.
The prime objectives of developing the GIS database are to help disaster managers at local and regional levels for:

1. Pre-disaster planning and preparedness
2. Prediction and early warning
3. Damage assessment and relief management

GIS combines layers of information on various themes to enable the managers to take the most appropriate decisions under the given circumstances. For disaster management, a GIS database could be a useful managerial tool for the reasons listed below:

1. Disaster Managers could generate maps both at micro and macro level indicating vulnerability to different extents under different threat perceptions.
2. Locations likely to remain unaffected or remain comparatively safe could be identified.
3. Alternate routes to shelters, camps, and important locations in the event of disruption of normal surface communication can be planned
4. Smooth rescue and evacuation operations could be properly planned.
5. Rehabilitation and post-disaster reconstruction works could be properly organized.
6. Locations suitable for construction of shelters, godowns, housing colonies, etc. can be scientifically identified.
7. Areas where no construction should be taken up or existing habitations require relocation, could be identified.

Department of Space (DOS, India) has embarked upon the Disaster Management Support to extend the benefits of the aerospace technology for the resolution of disaster management in the country. The Decision Support Centre (DSC) established at National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) is the single window delivery point for aerial and space enabled inputs together with other important data layers for its use in disaster management of pre-disaster, during-disaster and post-disaster phases. The natural disasters being addressed are  Flood, Cyclone, Agricultural Drought, Forest Fire, Earthquake and Landslide. Depending upon the satellite pass, cameras are tilted and data is acquired and analysed. The information is monitored on a regular basis for damage assessment. DSC has provision to mobilize aircraft equipped with Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), Air-borne Laser Terrain Mapping unit (ALTM) and High Resolution Digital Camera for obtaining aerial data. DSC is working on space inputs for long-term disaster mitigation and rehabilitation. Use of remote sensing data for various natural disasters is discussed below:

FLOOD: To keep watch on the flood situation in the country through hydrological and meteorological information from various sources, mapping & monitoring of major flood/cyclones with the satellite data from optical and microwave satellites, Generation of flood maps showing flood. The most flood-prone areas in India are the Brahmaputra, Ganga and Meghana River basins in the Indo-Gangetic-Brahmaputra plains in North and Northeast India. ISRO/DOS is playing a vital role in supporting the flood management activities, by providing space as well as aerial remote sensing based services and products. Using satellite data from Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS) System and from foreign satellites, the impact of floods in the country is assessed. The services provided in this context include:

1. Near Real Time Flood Mapping and Monitoring
2. Flood Damage Assessment
3. Flood Hazard Zone Mapping
4. River Bank Erosion Mapping and
5. Mapping changes in the river course

CYCLONES: Cyclones are wind-systems of relatively low pressure which spiral inwards towards a centre in the lowest atmospheric levels and cause immense destruction and loss of life when they strike coastal areas. Satellite communications provide an effective mechanism for real-time dissemination of information and early warning besides establishing communication link after cyclone hit. Earth observation satellites enable continuous monitoring of atmospheric as well as surface parameters. Information acquired by satellite remote sensing covers wide area, periodicity and spectral characteristics and especially in the easiness to compare the data before and after a disaster.

DROUGHT: Agricultural drought assessment using space technology inputs has been operational in India since 1989, through a project 'National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS)'. NADAMS provides near real-time information on prevalence, severity level and persistence of agricultural drought at regional and local levels through remote sensing.

FOREST FIRES: Indian Remote Sensing Satellite images were acquired and processed to monitor the forest fire incidence. The Decision Support Center (DSC) is established at National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) as part of Disaster Management Support Programme of Department of Space (DOS), for working towards effective management of disasters in India. A comprehensive Indian Forest Fire Response and Assessment System (INFFRAS) is invoked under DSC activities of NRSC, which integrates multi-sensor satellite data and ground data through spatially and temporally explicit GIS analysis frame work. This system provides information on:

1. Fire alerts
2. Fire progression
3. Burnt area assessment and
4. Forest fire mitigation plans

Bhopal gas tragedy as a chemical industrial disaster

On the night of December 2, 1984, the chemical, methyl isocyanate (MIC), spilled out from Union Carbide India Ltd’s (UCIL’s) pesticide factory turned the city into a vast gas chamber. People ran on the streets, vomiting and dying. This was India’s first (and so far, the only) major industrial disaster. This was a chemical industrial disaster and the Government had no clue how to respond in this case. The US-based multinational company, Union Carbide Corporation (UCC), which owned the plant through its subsidiary UCIL(Union Carbide India Limited), failed to deal with the human tragedy.

Bhopal was struck by two tragedies: the one that happened immediately, and the other that unfolded in the years that followed.

The problem was nobody knew much about the toxin or its antidote. Within weeks of the accident many claimed that people were suffering from common ailments of the poor, such as tuberculosis and anaemia. However, till date nobody knows the health impacts of MIC and how to treat patients exposed to the gas. The children born after the disaster are also its victims because of exposure to the deadly gas while they were in their mothers’ wombs.
Additionally, chemical wastes remain dumped in and around the premises of UCIL factory, contaminating the water that people drink.
Union Carbide used trade secrecy as a prerogative to withhold information on the exact composition of the leaked gases. MIC, when reacts with water at high temperatures and releases as many as 300 highly toxic chemicals.
In the first few days, there was evidence that people could be suffering from cyanide poisoning—intravenous injections of sodium thiosulphate, an antidote, imagewas found to be working on the patients. But soon, it was discontinued.

In 1989, UCC paid some US $470 million (worth Rs 750 crore that year) as compensation for the disaster. This was one-seventh of the original demand from the Indian government. However, all civil and criminal cases against the company were terminated. Later, it was realised that many more were suffering from exposure to the poisonous gas. So, when the case was decided, compensation was doled out to virtually the entire city. The final settlement was less than Rs 15,000 per victim.

Bhopal disaster 2.0

The factory used to manufacture three pesticides: carbaryl (trade name Sevin), aldicarb (trade name Temik) and a formulation of carbaryl and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (g-HCH), sold under the trade name, Sevidol. For 15 years till the disaster, it dumped process wastes, by-products, solvents, sub-standard products, wastes from machinery and polluted water at dump sites inside and outside the plant. Another 350 tonnes of waste has been kept in a leaking shed at the site. These wastes are still lying at the site, polluting soil and groundwater. This second legacy—Bhopal Disaster 2.0—now threatens even a larger number of people than the first one. Many of the chemicals degrade slowly and are likely to remain in the environment for hundreds of years. They will keep spreading unless they are taken out and the site is decontaminated.

Most studies found groundwater surrounding the UCIL site to be contaminated with chlorinated benzenes and HCH isomers. Carbaryl, aldicarb, carbon tetrachloride and chloroform were also detected in some studies. All these can be linked to the wastes dumped by UCIL plant.

The Union government asked Dow to deposit Rs 100 crore for environmental remediation. Dow has continued frantic lobbying to get the Indian government to withdraw its application.

The disaster had impacts far beyond the boundary of the ill-fated city and its people. It made a difference worldwide to the way that chemical and hazardous waste management was reinforced; workers’ safety precautions mandated; and legislation for environmental management strengthened. Perhaps, this is why we have not seen another Bhopal-like disaster in the past 30 years.

After 30 years, the government of India is still struggling to establish the liability of UCIL, its parent company UCC and its buyer, Dow Chemical.

Differences between human induced and human made disasters

Differences between Human induced and Human made disasters
The primary difference between human induced disasters is that human induced disasters happen unintentionally while human made disasters are intentional. This difference is illustrated below with the help of an example.

Love canal disaster can be termed as a human induced disaster while pollution of the air affecting the health of the population can be termed as a human made disaster.

The love canal tragedy occurred when the toxic chemicals buried underground by the hooker chemical company contaminated the groundwater. The company responsible for this tragedy did not do it on purpose. Hence this disaster can be classified as a human induced disaster.

The increased usage of automobiles in urban areas, has resulted in a very high concentration of pollutants. These pollutants pose a great health risk to new born babies and the elderly. Some of the consequences of this are lung infections, reduced immunity and lack of concentration. Growing population and urbanisation has made this a human-made disaster as this is being done intentionally.

Effects of a major power breakdown

Electricity plays an essential role in our lives. We require electricity for almost all our daily activities at work or home. Failure of electricity or power breakdown paralyses our lives. Power breakdown has been experienced by everyone. Failure of companies to supply electricity to a large area or city for an extended duration is termed as a major power breakdown. The various effects of a major power breakdown are listed below:

1. Inability to use any appliance (at home or work) that depends on electric power. Example: Iron box, Grinding machine, Fans, Lights, AC's, etc., at home and Computers, Copying machines, AC's, Lights, etc., at work
2. Farmers and residents will be unable to use electric pumps to draw water from wells
3. Traffic lights will be non-operational in the affected area causing chaos and leading to traffic accidents
4. Health services will be interrupted and all medical equipment depending on electric power will be non-operational leading to trauma and possible loss of life.
5. A major power breakdown will have a severe negative effect on the socioeconomic fabric of the society
6. Major power breakdowns cause severe financial losses to the Government and private industries.